SPACEX MARS CITY by Elon Musk

Mars colony / SpaceX

HOW MUCH WILL IT COST TO BUILD A CITY ON MARS?

ccording to Elon Musk, it could become the most expensive construction project in human history, costing as much as one-eighth of the entire global economy. The SpaceX CEO’s vision isn’t simply to send the first humans to Mars, but to use that mission as the starting point for a permanent settlement. If everything goes according to plan, Musk believes the first fully fledged city could be established as early as 2050.

What might happen after that is anyone’s guess. In interviews with Inverse, experts from different fields pointed to several challenges the first inhabitants would face. Humans might mutate and develop new physical traits, form a national identity, and build their own economy. Musk has previously said that SpaceX could offer a return ticket to Mars for roughly the price of an average home in the United States. That would amount to around $200,000, based on the idea that people could sell their homes and move to Mars.

As Günter Lang, professor of economics at Kühne Logistics University in Germany, told Inverse in May, many people would probably see such a journey as a wild adventure rather than a serious investment, which could drive prices up. So if SpaceX plans to launch a new city in just three decades, how much would it cost?

“Between $100 billion and $10 trillion”, Musk wrote on Twitter on August 10.

SPACEX MARS CITY: THE COST OF BUILDING A NEW MARS CITY

These calculations are based on the assumption that the city would require at least one million tonnes of cargo from Earth to function. Musk said this in a July 2019 interview with CBS News, comparing the scale of the undertaking to the lunar spacecraft, which carried far less cargo. He later clarified, however, that it was simply the closest comparison in terms of scale.
The cost of creating the city would depend on the price of sending one tonne of cargo to Mars. According to Musk, if each tonne could be transported for $100,000, the total cost would be around $100 billion. In 2017, Musk estimated the current price at roughly $140,000 per tonne, while citing $100,000 as an achievable target.

Musk’s figures are striking. Here is what $100 billion represents:

• It would be enough to match the net worth of almost any individual in the world, except Bernard Arnault, Bill Gates, and Jeff Bezos. It would cover Musk’s own net worth of $22.8 billion almost five times over;

• It is roughly half of New Zealand’s annual GDP of $204 billion;

• Marianne Williamson, who was seeking the Democratic Party nomination in the US presidential election, called for $100 billion in slavery reparations;

• The Paris Agreement commits countries collectively to spending $100 billion a year on fighting climate change;

• The money could also cover the cost of launching 1,500 SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets.

$10 trillion is the highest figure suggested by Musk:

• It would exceed the cost of the US Interstate Highway System — nearly $500 billion — which is arguably the most expensive construction project in human history;

• It would be enough to cover the value of New York City, estimated at $1.4 trillion, around seven times over;

• It would almost be enough to buy all assets in the United Kingdom, worth around $11.8 trillion;

• It is roughly twice the total amount of physical money that exists in the world;

• It is about half of the United States’ annual GDP of $19.5 trillion and twice that of Japan, at $4.9 trillion. In fact, it is roughly one-eighth of the entire world economy, with the combined annual GDP of all countries estimated at around $79.98 trillion;

• It would be enough to buy the world’s 10 most valuable publicly traded companies, with a combined market capitalization of $3.6 trillion;

• It sounds like an incredible amount of money, but it still represents only a fraction of global wealth. The total value of real estate is estimated at around $217 trillion, roughly equal to the total global debt held by individuals and countries combined. Wealth tied up in derivatives is estimated at anywhere between $544 trillion and a staggering $1.2 quadrillion.

Even so, as a cost for building a new city, it is astronomical.

SPACEX MARS CITY: HOW TO BUILD THE CITY

SpaceX is expected to use Starship to launch its city-building effort. It is a 348-foot stainless-steel rocket designed to be fully reusable, with enough cabin space to comfortably accommodate around 100 people on a journey to Mars lasting three to six months. It is designed to carry more than 100 tonnes of cargo to Mars, provided SpaceX can solve the problem of adding more fuel in orbit.

The company unveiled its plan to send humans to Mars in September 2017. First, two uncrewed spacecraft would land. Two years later, when Earth and Mars draw close again, the company would send two crewed and two uncrewed ships. The crew would be tasked with creating a fuel depot and producing liquid oxygen and methane to refuel the spacecraft for the return journey home. Musk planned to update the public on the project on August 24.

After 10 launch windows between Mars and Earth, when the planets are at their closest, Musk believes enough cargo could be transported to establish a city. To reach the goal by 2050, he noted, the team would probably need to begin missions around 2024. SpaceX principal Mars development engineer Paul Wooster explained in September 2018 that future inhabitants would need to expand fuel production, establish waste-recycling systems, build landing pads, homes, greenhouses, and more.

SPACEX MARS CITY: WHY MUSK WANTS TO DO IT

The project is extraordinarily expensive, life will be hard for the first inhabitants, and the entire effort could collapse into a disaster of spiraling costs. So why does Musk still want to do it?
Because he sees it as something that could make people look forward to the future, in September 2018, he explained: “There are so many things that make people sad about the future, but I think becoming a spacefaring civilization is one of those things that makes us excited about the future… that is the purpose of BFR [now known as Starship], to get people excited about the future”. The most expensive project of all time? It could free humanity from Earth’s boundaries and usher in a new era in its history.

Source:

• SpaceX Mars city: Here’s how much Elon Musk’s dream would cost

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