STORMING THE SKY: The Rise of Architectural «Arrogance» Could Lead to a Crisis in 2028
Anton Josef von Prenner. The Tower of Babel, 1563 / wikipedia.org
Humanity has always aspired to reach the sky — not just metaphorically but quite literally. With each passing century, it has advanced construction and architectural techniques, climbing ever higher. Since ancient times, this gigantomania has been regarded as far from harmless. The Tower of Babel became a symbol of this danger.
The biblical tale of the Great Flood was the first to link the construction of a skyscraper with a global catastrophe. Perhaps the modern Skyscraper Index traces its origins back to those legendary times. But can it really predict when a global economic crisis will occur?
THE MOST FAMOUS «SKYSCRAPER»
The Tower of Babel is the most famous ancient «skyscraper» — though not the first, nor the only one. Its real-life prototype was the ziggurat Etemenanki, a temple dedicated to the God Marduk, built in Babylon in the 18th century BCE.
The name of the temple, which translates to «the house where heaven and earth meet», was not chosen by chance. After all, where else would heaven and earth converge if not at the «Gate of God»? This is precisely what «Kandigir», the ancient Sumerian name for the city later known as Babylon, means.
Construction of the ziggurat is believed to have taken about a hundred years. It was then destroyed, rebuilt, and modified several times. According to reconstructions, its original height of 66 meters was eventually extended to 91 meters — a significant structure even by today’s standards and downright miraculous nearly 4,000 years ago.
The Bible claims the tower was commissioned by Nimrod, a descendant of Ham — the very figure whose name gave rise to the modern word «arrogance». And arrogance, as we know, rarely leads to anything good — especially when directed not at a neighbor but at God Himself.
It’s unclear whether the entire ancient world truly saw architectural gigantomania as dangerous arrogance. However, it is known that King Hammurabi, under whose reign Babylon flourished, halted the construction of Etemenanki for reasons unknown — perhaps to avoid tempting fate.
When Alexander the Great captured Babylon in 331 BCE, he ordered the reconstruction of the ziggurat. His sudden death prevented the project from being completed. Ultimately, Etemenanki was dismantled entirely in the 3rd century BCE under Antiochus I. After stumbling on the temple steps during a sacrificial ritual, the superstitious king interpreted the incident as a bad omen. Rather than continue the reconstruction, he chose to demolish the structure to avoid inviting misfortune.
SOMETHING WAS OFF ABOUT THEM EVEN IN ANTIQUITY…
Humanity’s fascination with architectural gigantomania began with what now seems like modest heights. The first known temple in world history, Göbekli Tepe, located in modern-day Turkey, reached a height of 6 meters. Built 12,000 years ago, it continues to baffle scientists as to why it was suddenly abandoned. Evidently frightened, its builders buried their «skyscraper» beneath a mound of earth before leaving. Yet this didn’t deter humanity…
The Tower of Jericho, built 2,000 years after Göbekli Tepe, already stood 2.5 meters taller. Another 4,000 years later, the White Temple in Sumerian Uruk stretched to 13 meters. However, before the Etemenanki ziggurat rose, the Egyptian pyramids had already taken the lead.
The pharaohs’ pyramid race began in 2650 BCE with Djoser’s 62-meter step pyramid and peaked with Pharaoh Khufu’s Great Pyramid, which soared to 146.7 meters. For nearly 4,000 years, it remained the tallest architectural structure on Earth. Less known, however, is that Khufu, despite his monumental achievement, proved to be a lackluster ruler.
When he died around 2566 BCE, he left behind a bankrupt kingdom. A prolonged economic crisis ultimately led to the collapse of the Fourth Dynasty. Some even suspect that Khufu’s weary subjects may have hastened his departure — though evidence for this theory remains scarce.
«UNLUCKY SKYSCRAPERS» OF THE MIDDLE AGES
After pyramids and ziggurats, architectural gigantomania seemed to lose momentum. By the 14th century BCE, the mysterious Nuraghe towers of Sardinia barely reached 19 meters. The famous Mausoleum at Halicarnassus, completed in 351 BCE, stood 45 meters high. Yet, to contemporaries, it appeared so massive that it earned a spot among the Seven Wonders of the World.
A true breakthrough came only in 1311 with the construction of Lincoln Cathedral in England. Completed in 1549, it reached 160 meters from its base to the spire — finally surpassing the Great Pyramid of Khufu.
For 238 years, the cathedral held the title of the world’s tallest structure. However, as if to humble human architectural pride, a violent storm struck Lincoln the very year it was completed, toppling its spire.
Call it a mystical coincidence, but in 1647, the same fate befell the spire of St. Mary’s Church in Stralsund. A lightning strike, followed by a storm, brought down the 151-meter structure. Similarly, the 153-meter spire of St. Peter’s Cathedral in Beauvais collapsed due to a storm.
Today, these cathedrals stand much shorter than their original heights. Meanwhile, construction of the Ulm Minster (161.5 m) and Cologne Cathedral (157 m), which began in the Middle Ages, was only completed by the late 19th century.
A KILOMETER IS JUST THE BEGINNING!
But the first true skyscraper fell far short of the height of medieval cathedrals. It was even shorter than the aforementioned mausoleum. Built in Chicago in 1885, the Home Insurance Building stood at just 42 meters. Its steel frame, designed by architect William Le Baron Jenney — dubbed the «father of skyscrapers» — marked the dawn of modern high-rise construction.
Earlier structures like New York’s 40-meter Equitable Life Building are sometimes excluded from the skyscraper category due to their lack of a steel framework. Yet today, a steel frame is no longer a defining feature. For instance, the world’s tallest building — the 828-meter Burj Khalifa in Dubai — relies on special concrete instead. To withstand temperatures up to 48 °C, this concrete was poured at night with ice added to the mix.
Recently, Burj Khalifa’s reign has been challenged. In 2028, Saudi Arabia plans to unveil the Jeddah Tower — the world’s first skyscraper to surpass 1 kilometer in height. Its cutting-edge features include vibration-dampening systems, a gravity-based power storage system, and high-speed elevators capable of reaching the top in mere minutes.
Critics warn of high risks associated with such megastructures, but the race continues. Designs for buildings exceeding 1 kilometer are emerging worldwide. Dubai Creek Tower in the UAE is projected to reach 1,345 meters, while Tokyo’s Sky Mile Tower aims for an astonishing 1,699 meters. Few, however, consider that these modern «Towers of Babel» carry not only technological ambition but also a darker side.
SKYSCRAPERS AS CRISIS INDICATORS
In 1999, Andrew Lawrence, an analyst at Barclays Capital, wrote an article titled The Skyscraper Index: Faulty Towers. The report was never published, but it argued a «general economic principle» suggesting that very tall buildings tend to emerge at the peaks of economic cycles.
Glass-and-steel towers symbolize what economist Alan Greenspan called «irrational exuberance». Analysis has shown that both the construction of such buildings and the rapid increase in their height correlate with the scale of an impending crisis. Skyscrapers serve as fairly accurate indicators of an approaching downturn.
For example, shortly after the completion of the Equitable Life Building, the five-year recession of 1873–1878 began. The Singer Building and the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company were opened in New York during the Panic of 1907.
Construction of the Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building in New York began just before «Black Thursday» in 1929. During the stock market crash and the oil crisis of 1973, the World Trade Center towers were under construction.
The Petronas Towers opened their doors just before the Asian financial crisis of 1997. The Burj Khalifa was nearly completed when the 2007–2009 recession hit, and its grand opening coincided with the bankruptcy of the UAE’s largest investment fund.
WHY DOES THE INDEX WORK?
The explanation is simple. Modern «Towers of Babel» are built when money is easy to access. Carol Willis, director of the Skyscraper Museum in Manhattan, points out that the tallest buildings tend to emerge during the final phase of a «boom», when economic growth is nearly exhausted.
An abnormally tall skyscraper serves as proof that speculative frenzy and irrationality have overtaken developers and financiers. They mistakenly believe that prices will continue to rise and profitability will remain high.
Analysts have already linked the next economic crisis to the completion of the Jeddah Tower. However, the Saudi project is not alone. In London, construction of the 310-meter Shard, the tallest building in the EU, is nearing completion.
According to Barclays Capital, half of the world’s skyscrapers are currently being built in China at record speeds. India, by comparison, has only 2 out of 276 skyscrapers worldwide taller than 240 meters. However, 14 similar projects are nearing completion there. India also holds a different kind of record — billionaire Mukesh Ambani built a 27-story residence in Mumbai, the most expensive private home in the world, requiring a staff of 600 people to maintain it.
Still, some argue that the Skyscraper Index is merely a coincidence, noting that the recessions of 1937 and the early 1980s were not accompanied by major construction projects. Yet, there are far more examples supporting the theory than exceptions. Now, we just have to wait until 2028 to find out if the Index truly works.
