THE MONKEY INSIDE US: macaques might hint at who will win the elections
Photo by Güner Deliağa Şahiner on Unsplash
The image of the animal oracle is deeply ingrained in culture. In Ancient Rome, the behavior of sacred chickens influenced the state’s governance and even determined the fate of entire battles. Cicero recounts how one Roman admiral, displeased with the gods’ choice, threw the chickens into the sea.
«If they don’t want to eat, let them drink!» he declared. A devastating defeat by Carthage followed, along with the condemnation of the Romans and the admiral’s suicide. But if you think chickens aren’t smart enough, what would you say about monkeys? Neuroscientists have found scientific evidence suggesting that macaques may be able to predict the outcome of U.S. elections.
WEATHER PREDICTIONS
People have long been accustomed to using animals to predict the weather. Perhaps the most famous forecaster in the world is Phil the Groundhog, who lives on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, and has been predicting the arrival of spring since 1887. While this American tradition might seem like mere entertainment, it’s not quite so simple. Many animals are indeed sensitive to weather changes. Sharks and rays, for instance, sharply react to temperature shifts, with evolution equipping them with specialized channels in their heads for this purpose.
Bees are finely attuned to ultraviolet light, while cockroaches respond to infrared light. Owls, bats, dolphins, and whales can perceive infrared- and ultrasound vibrations. Observing animal behavior, humans have, since ancient times, created a whole system of signs. For example, if a dog rolls on the ground in the summer, bad weather is coming; if it sleeps a lot during a winter day, expect a snowstorm.
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS
German scientists have discovered that ants can sense earthquakes with a magnitude of 2.0 or higher. Before one begins, they evacuate their nest. In China, it has traditionally been believed that snakes predict tremors. This ancient belief was confirmed in February 1975, when snakes began to leave their burrows en masse in Haicheng. A 7.3-magnitude earthquake followed.
The Greeks observed similar behavior in the city of Helike, which was destroyed by a tsunami. In Japan, deep-sea oarfish began washing up on shore en masse before the 2011 earthquake. They behaved similarly in Chile and Taiwan. Zookeepers in the United States and India reported seeing flamingos huddle together and attempt to flee before the onset of a tsunami or earthquake.
WHY DO RATS LEAVE A SHIP?
If rats are leaving a ship, trouble is on the way. This behavior has become a symbol of betrayal for a reason. Rats have long lived aboard ships, occupying the most inaccessible spots in the hold. They react to life-threatening emergencies sooner than humans, so sailors came to believe that rats can foresee impending misfortunes.
Modern technology has done little to change this. There’s a well-known case of rats on a nuclear submarine being the first to detect a dangerous Freon leak, helping to avert a disaster. Miners have their bioindicator — a canary in a cage, which they take underground.
Mines often accumulate more gas, which humans might not detect, but canaries don’t survive even at the first signs of life-threatening concentrations.
FOOTBALL ORACLES
The desire to peer into the future with the help of animals often goes beyond science and is especially pronounced in football. No major championship goes without animal psychics. The star of football clairvoyance is Paul the Octopus, who in 2010 predicted the winners of all six matches of the German team and the world champion — Spain.
No one has managed to surpass this astounding feat. At the height of his career, Paul was named an honorary citizen of the Spanish town of O Carballiño, an ambassador for England’s bid to host the 2018 FIFA World Cup, and after his death, earned a memorial with a golden urn in Oberhausen.
Sadly, those who followed — Nelly the elephant, Hennes the goat, Flocke the kangaroo, Theo the tapir, Fred the ferret, Sheikha the camel, penguins Lolly and Gin, parrots Sarja and Oscar, donkeys Alistair and Derek, among others — were not destined to achieve greatness as prognosticators.
POLITICAL EXPERTS
The pig Mystic Marcus came closest to Paul’s prophetic prowess, predicting Germany’s victory in the 2014 World Cup, Brexit in 2016, and Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president in 2017.
Throughout history, animals have intertwined their fates with those of nations, politics, and even geopolitics. Amalthea, the goat, nursed Zeus himself. The city of Rome would never have existed if a she-wolf had not cared for its founders — Romulus and Remus. And what about the geese that saved Rome from the Celts?
Even Attila’s invasion of Europe might not have happened had a doe not shown the Huns a Ford, enabling them to flank the Goths in the Black Sea region. The ancient Greek hero Cadmus, who brought the Greeks the light of Eastern civilization, including the alphabet, founded Thebes with the help of a sacred cow. Following an oracle’s advice, he built the city where she lay down.
MACAQUES READ FACES
It’s unclear exactly how this works, but according to recent scientific data, there may indeed be grounds to consider the opinions of animals. After a lineup of various clairvoyant creatures, it’s now the monkeys’ turn. For instance, how would you feel about the idea that macaques, when shown photos of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, might be able to predict who will win the November U.S. presidential election?
Don’t be quick to dismiss monkeys’ predictive power. Neuroscientists from the University of Pennsylvania conducted an experiment that their peers described as «provocative but not foolish». When macaques were shown photos of monkeys they had never seen before; researchers found that they glanced at high-status individuals stealthily — direct eye contact might be perceived as aggression.
However, they gazed at images of lower-status males and females for much longer.
FROM MONKEY TO HUMAN
Scientists had the idea to show macaques paired photos of people: candidates for U.S. Senate, governor, and presidential races. In each pair, the monkeys tended to focus on one person. Researchers conducted this experiment with participants from 273 races between 1995 and 2008.
In 54.4% of cases, the monkeys more often or for longer periods focused on the loser. They were even more accurate in «swing» states, identifying the winner 58.1% of the time. However, in presidential elections from 2000 to 2020, «gaze bias» was like a coin toss — it pointed to the loser only 50.4% of the time across six elections.
Nevertheless, neuroscientists suggested that a candidate’s face contains information that somehow influences voter choice.
CHILDREN ARE NO LESS THAN MONKEYS
For example, the size and shape of a candidate’s jaw might indicate social dominance: winning candidates, on average, had jaws 2% larger in proportion to the cheek. In this sense, humans are not much different from monkeys, who associate facial features with «competence».
As early as 2007, scientists discovered that people who knew nothing about a candidate’s political views could predict election results «based on appearance». Further experiments showed that young children do this extremely effectively — they’re correct 70% of the time.
But if a 5-year-old votes the same way as a 65-year-old, it means only one thing: something in our genes drives such decisions, and it shares evolutionary roots with monkeys.
POLITICAL SCIENTISTS VS. THE COMPETITION?
Can macaques help predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections? Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University whom the press calls the «prophet of presidential elections», believes it’s pointless. Using multifactorial analysis, he has accurately predicted the outcome of nearly every presidential election for the last 40 years.
Lichtman is also skeptical of the fact that macaques «guessed» the outcomes of past elections. But could they predict the outcome of an event that has yet to occur? Gary King, a political scientist at Harvard University, echoes this sentiment.
Modern election forecasting models are complex. They rely on decisive factors such as voter income, ideology, or previous voting patterns. Overall, King considers human political behavior to be highly predictable, and he doubts that monkeys could enhance this predictability.
SO, HARRIS OR TRUMP?
Nevertheless, neuroscientists from the University of Pennsylvania dared to experiment with the upcoming elections, aiming to see what clues monkeys might provide about the 2024 presidential race. Unfortunately, the politically correct researchers didn’t give a clear answer regarding the duel between Harris and Trump.
However, they did note that the face of Trump’s chosen vice president, J.D. Vance, «loses» to Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate. The scientists remarked that «a little monkey lives inside each of us». And in some, perhaps, it’s not so little… So, make your conscious choice with that in mind!
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