According to the China Africa Research Initiative (CARI) of Johns Hopkins University, Kenya is one of the top five African countries contributing to revenues of Chinese engineering and construction companies, along with Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, and Angola.
CARI identified 43 Chinese loans to Kenya, totaling US$9.2bn, by the end of 2020; at US$6.1bn, loans for transportation projects are second only to Angola. From the Kenyan perspective, the Chinese projects saw public debt as a share of GDP rise from 39 percent in 2013 to 66 percent in 2020, with an increasing share from more expensive commercial sources.
According to David Ndii, half of debt is now domestic, at rates of interest over 10 percent, accounting for three-quarters of interest payments. Meanwhile, government revenue as a portion of GDP fell from 18.1 percent in 2013-14 to 16.1 percent in 2018-19. The IMF this year described Kenya as «at high risk of debt distress».
The situation places great weight on Kenya’s vaunted private sector to carry the economy forward. Entrepreneurial innovation in Kenya is certainly impressive. M-Pesa (meaning ‘mobile money’), the mobile phone-based payments and lending service developed by Kenya’s Safaricom, has come to be used by more than 70 percent of the population and expanded regionally.
Kenya produces significant numbers of agile, private-sector start-ups every year. Peter Njonjo, a former Africa executive with Coca-Cola, started Twiga Foods in 2014, which provides the logistics to link farmers with small-scale retailers.
Unable to overcome the product quality problems of smallholder farmers in an environment of weak government support, Twiga is integrating larger-scale commercial farms in the region into its city-focused distribution network.
It is a typical case of the Kenyan private sector adjusting to what is possible, and Twiga has won investments from the World Bank’s private sector lending arm and Goldman Sachs. ‘The lack of government involvement has led the ecosystem to evolve in a very informal way,’ says Njonjo. The private sector’s job, he says, is to find a way through this.
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Kenya should be a processing hub for farm products. Led by private sector firms, regional trade in foodstuffs is already much expanded.
In March, for instance, potatoes on sale in Kenya are likely to be from Tanzania and plantains from Uganda, reflecting relatively stronger growth of regional trade in East Africa compared with West Africa.
Nonetheless, the space available to the private sector in Kenya is less than the government’s rhetoric suggests. There are still more than 300 state sector firms operating in the country despite decades of World Bank and IMF-led «refor» programs — in retail, manufacturing, and agri-processing sectors, among others.
At the same time, as a recent World Bank report observes: «Prominent government officials often have large private sector interests and influence public procurement and government priorities through the use of proxy companies».
Young Kenyan woman. Source: depositphotos.com
As noted, Kenya has run ahead of the average sub-Saharan growth rate for several decades. To recognize more of its potential, however, the country needs more competition and more export-focused private sector activity.
However, it is difficult in the current political climate — dominated by a small number of what Kenyans term «royal families» that consistently failed to frame an economic development agenda — to see this happening.
Kenya, for instance, opened Export Processing Zones in the 1990s at the same time as Bangladesh, but policy implementation failings mean that today, Kenyan EPZs employ around 50,000 workers versus four million in Bangladesh.
A LIKELY TRAJECTORY FOR KENYA
The more likely trajectory for Kenya is towards another debt crisis and a new round of World Bank and IMF interventions. Before that, there will be the next Kenyan election in 2022 and the possibility of renewed ethnic violence on which Kenyan politics all too often feeds.
THE STORY OF MUNGIKI: MACHETES REPLACED BY BIBLES?
In Kenya, a country of nearly 50 million people, almost half the population lives below the poverty line, surviving on less than $2 a day. This extreme poverty has given rise to a phenomenon known as the Mungiki movement — a criminal-religious sect whose name translates from the Kikuyu language as «crowd» or «multitude».
In many ways, Mungiki carried on the violent legacy of the Mau Mau rebellion. The Mau Mau were notorious for skinning their victims, severing limbs and heads, and scattering the remains in public spaces to intimidate colonial settlers.
Mungiki’s founder, Maina Njenga, employed similar tactics. According to legend, a white dove once flew into Njenga’s classroom and landed on his head. This event made the young boy feel chosen, and he began gathering disillusioned and aimless youth around him.
Mungiki members worshipped Ngai, the god of lightning, rain, and war. They practiced ritual killings and drank human blood during ceremonies. Additionally, they enforced the brutal and illegal practice of female genital mutilation (FGM), claiming it rendered women «safe» for marriage.
Over time, the small quasi-religious sect transformed into a powerful criminal organization, with membership peaking at 200,000 in the 1990s.
Their crimes included racketeering, extortion, prostitution, kidnappings, and murders, with ritualistic torture and executions being particularly horrifying. Police raids near Nairobi uncovered mass graves containing as many as 50 dismembered bodies.
Mungiki’s downfall began with a prolonged conflict with moonshine brewers, whom they attempted to extort. The escalating violence forced police to intervene, leading to a bloody crackdown. Over five years, law enforcement killed 8,000 Mungiki members.
In 2006, Maina Njenga was arrested for illegal possession of firearms and marijuana. However, by 2009, he was released and surprised the nation by being baptized in a Pentecostal church called «Jesus is Alive». Njenga announced the dissolution of Mungiki and pledged to replace machetes with Bibles for his followers.
Today, Njenga appears publicly alongside Kenya’s leadership and spearheads the National Youth Movement. His name frequently makes headlines, and his speeches are broadcast on Kenya’s television channels.
Mungiki’s brutal killing methods were borrowed from the Mau Mau rebels. Former Mungiki sect leader Maina Njenga received an award from Senator Gideon Moi in 2017. Source: anneholmesphotography.com
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