THE TRAJECTORY OF AI: 7 Stages of Artificial Intelligence Development and Their Consequences
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Artificial intelligence, a transformative force that continues to reshape our world, is bringing revolutionary changes across various fields. Understanding the scenario of these changes and the trends in AI development is crucial. Summarizing contemporary scientific discussions, we identify seven stages of this development, leading us from tangible realities to the most incredible futurist predictions.
STAGE 1: RULE-BASED SYSTEMS
Rule-based systems are designed to handle specific tasks and represent the earliest stage of AI development.
For instance, consider playing chess against a computer. The computer knows all possible combinations of moves you might make and the corresponding responses. Therefore, based on its encoded rules, it will always choose the best possible move from numerous potential outcomes.
Within these highly formalized rules, such systems can surpass human capabilities. Examples include diagnosing mechanical issues or processing tax data. These systems, while their intelligence is strictly limited, are reliable, consistent, and highly efficient, making them invaluable in practical applications.
They can only operate, learn, or understand the context within the predefined rules they are programmed with.
STAGE 2: CONTEXT-AWARE SYSTEMS
These AI systems represent a significant leap forward in the evolution of artificial intelligence. They can remember previous interactions and use this knowledge to shape new responses. Examples of such AI include Siri, Google Assistant, or ChatGPT — the most popular AI character today.
ChatGPT excels at handling context, learning from millions of previous conversations. As a result, when interacting with you, it can generate automated responses that are virtually indistinguishable from those of a human.
Compared to systems that operate solely on rules, ChatGPT provides a more personalized and complex user experience. This stage of AI development is akin to the adolescent stage of human development — no longer a child but not yet an adult.
STAGE 3: EXPERT SYSTEMS
At this stage, in addition to the ability to understand and retain information, AI gains another crucial skill — the ability to improve and enhance its qualifications in a specific field. These expert AI systems can be found in various specialized applications. They focus not on versatility but on achieving superior expertise in a particular domain.
For example, IBM Watson is designed to excel in answering questions on the quiz show Jeopardy. At the same time, DeepMind’s AlphaGo, developed by Google, was explicitly created to master the game of Go and defeat world champions.
The proficiency level of these systems surpasses that of humans because they can analyze volumes of data inaccessible to people, identify patterns, and make decisions based on them with incredible speed. However, these systems can only compete with humans within the very narrow area they specialize in.
STAGE 4: THINKING SYSTEMS
At this stage, AI closely resembles human intelligence. It no longer merely follows rules or retains context — it imitates human thought processes, can comprehend and solve previously unfamiliar tasks, understands others’ ideas, and generates its own.
Developers achieve this through two main approaches: machine learning and deep learning. These methods enable AI to accumulate experience, draw conclusions from it, and gradually improve. Such an AI system can read a book, understand the plot, and interpret characters’ actions and motives. It can also analyze economic data, predict market trends, and propose investment strategies.
However, no matter how impressive AI’s achievements are at this stage, it is more of a highly advanced tool specializing in thinking tasks rather than a true equivalent of the human mind.
STAGE 5: ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE
Unfortunately, the previous stage was the last achievable with current technological advancements. From here, we move from practice to theory. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) remains beyond our grasp. However, it is assumed that AGI will be indistinguishable from human intelligence.
AGI will possess self-awareness and, like humans, will be able to understand, adapt, and apply knowledge to solve a wide range of tasks: learning a new language, composing a symphony, proving a theorem, and even understanding human emotions.
AGI is technologically feasible, yet it is still a matter of the future. Because of this, discussions about what will happen to the world when AGI appears are no less heated.
STAGE 6: ARTIFICIAL SUPERINTELLIGENCE
This stage, while entirely logical, remains purely theoretical and belongs to the realm of science fiction. At the level of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), a world emerges where AI performs all human tasks but far better. ASI’s capabilities enable it to tackle problems beyond the reach of the human mind.
These could include not only climate change or diseases but also unraveling the mysteries of the Universe that lie beyond our comprehension. ASI elevates the discussion around AI to a new level, bringing us back to eternal, purely human questions — about power and control, the nature of intelligence, and consciousness.
Is it possible for such questions to be answered by a mind other than a human one?
STAGE 7: AI SINGULARITY
The term “singularity” was introduced by futurist Ray Kurzweil to describe the moment when technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible. Before this, in physics, singularity referred to the properties of a black hole, where known laws cease to apply.
It is theorized that at some point, ASI will begin to improve itself at a pace leading to a technological explosion with unpredictable consequences for humanity. Some experts consider the singularity a scientifically grounded prediction, while others see it as science fiction.
This uncertainty paves the way for a wide range of futuristic speculations, often painting apocalyptic visions of the future.
SOME CONCLUSIONS
Today, humanity has yet to progress beyond the 5th stage of AI development. Until the capabilities of artificial intelligence match those of humans, we will remain in the realm of predictions. However, it is not without reason that we have summarized for you the sequence of 7 stages of AI technology development, which are actively discussed in the global scientific community.
They help us better understand the most likely scenario for AI’s evolution. We see the significant role it already plays in our world and understand that its influence will only continue to grow.
This means we must approach these processes with the utmost responsibility, recognizing both the incredible potential and the possible risks of these technologies.
