Борис Бурда
Author: Boris Burda
Journalist, writer, bard. Winner of the "Diamond Owl" in the intellectual game «What? Where? When?»

BORIS BURDA: How to Predict the Weather for Tomorrow

BORIS BURDA: How to Predict the Weather for Tomorrow
William Bernard Cooke. Eddystone Lighthouse, engraving, 1836 / classicsailboats.org

 

ATTENTION — QUESTION!

 

Just before the Allied landings in France, German forces commander Rommel received some terrible news. This made him happy, and he calmly left for Germany to attend his wife’s anniversary celebration — a decision he later regretted. What was the damaging information he received?

 

ATTENTION — CORRECT ANSWER!

 

The weather forecast could have been better, and Rommel believed that the landing would be impossible. However, the Allies waited a day and decided to proceed, which ultimately led to their success.

 

WILL IT RAIN?

 

Knowing tomorrow’s weather, or even next week’s, is helpful, but in ancient times, it was rarely achievable. No ancient ruler wanted to go hunting, get caught in a sudden downpour, and be stuck in the mud with their entourage. Predictions about rain weren’t limited to simple forecasts; people tried to summon it with special incantations. This usually worked if they kept chanting until the rain came…

However, only some were allowed to ask about the weather. In the story «One Thousand and One Nights», the wise maiden Tawaddud is questioned by a spiteful sage who wants to discredit her before the sultan. He asks, «Will it rain this month?» She answers correctly, demanding that the sultan execute the questioner for heresy, as only Allah knows such things. The tale hints that in Islamic countries, weather forecasting wasn’t encouraged.

It quickly became apparent that religious figures couldn’t handle weather predictions. It was decided to use science instead of miracles. Even though there wasn’t much science at the time, Aristotle, who created many sciences, wrote the first work on this subject. He coined the term for the science of atmospheric phenomena using the word «meteor», meaning something in the air.

Aristotle named his first work on weather «Meteorologica», and the term stuck. Unfortunately, meteorology as a science developed very slowly. Folk omens were used instead, and they worked. Most of these omens were tied to specific days of the year — after all, snow falls more often in winter and rain in autumn… There is almost always a weather prediction associated with any Orthodox saint’s feast day.

There are also signs indicating causal relationships, which are more reliable. Meteorologist Roman Vilfand says he even believes in two such signs: if the setting sun is red, expect good weather, and if it’s pale, rain is likely. Also, birds fly low before rain. There are many more, and they sometimes come true, but only sometimes… Therefore, only some people take them seriously.

 

Эванджелиста Торричелли (1608 — 1647) — итальянский математик и физик, ученик Галилея. Развил теорию атмосферного давления, доказал возможность получения так называемой «торичелиевой пустоты» и изобрел ртутный барометр. Сформулировал принцип движения центров тяжести, заложил основы гидравлики, вывел формулу для скорости истечения идеальной жидкости из сосуда
Evangelista Torricelli (1608–1647) was an Italian mathematician and physicist, a disciple of Galileo. He developed the theory of atmospheric pressure, demonstrated the possibility of creating the so-called «Torricellian vacuum», and invented the mercury barometer. Torricelli also formulated the principle of the movement of centers of gravity, laid the foundations of hydraulics, and derived the formula for the velocity of efflux of an ideal fluid from a vessel / wikipedia.org

 

SCIENCE IS MEASUREMENT

 

Not only that, but natural sciences also grow more prosperous the more numbers they incorporate. It is appropriate to speak of meteorology as an actual science only from the 17th century, as it was at the beginning of this century that Galileo’s work gifted us the thermometer, allowing us to express «warm» and «cold» in numbers.

Shortly after, a device for measuring atmospheric pressure — the barometer — was developed. Galileo’s pupil Evangelista Torricelli invented the mercury barometer in 1643, and in 1700, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz proposed a more convenient aneroid barometer. These instruments revealed that pressure and its changes also indicate what kind of weather is likely to come.

In Jules Verne’s works, you can easily find simple rules for determining the weather using a barometer. When the barometer falls, expect rain; when it rises, good weather is on the way. The longer the time between the pressure change and the weather shift, the longer the change will last. In spring and autumn, a falling barometer indicates wind; in summer, thunderstorms; and in winter, a thaw. For more details, you can check «The Fifteen-Year-Old Captain».

However, in those days, weather predictions were often made by astrologers rather than scientists, such as Peter the Great’s associate James Bruce. His predictions, made using tables of celestial body movements, persisted into the 20th century in the calendars of the Russian Empire — each day featured a line of «weather according to Bruce» .Although these predictions often did not come true and quickly became a source of mockery, they continued to be printed…

 

Types of Barometers. Illustration from the Brockhaus and Efron Encyclopedic Dictionary / wikipedia.org

 

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SOCIAL DEMAND

 

Medieval city dwellers were primarily interested in the weather for the next day — would it rain, or would it pass? Should they wear a cloak or not? Farmers, on the other hand, needed long-term forecasts — should they sow or wait? Would there be frost? How about drought? And in the age of great geographical discoveries, a new consumer emerged — the sailor, who needed to know if the sea would sink their ship.

The first ships to reach America — the fleet of Columbus — encountered a terrible storm on the return journey and were saved by sheer luck. Subsequently, many Spanish ships followed this route, transporting gold and silver from America to Spain. However, not all made it — the dreadful tropical storms sent many of them to the bottom, creating work for modern treasure hunters.

Some storms even received their names. The Great Storm of November 26, 1703, for instance, was immortalized by Daniel Defoe in a specially-written novel. No wonder: approximately 150,000 people perished, over a hundred shipwrecks were recorded, and the British Parliament discussed the catastrophic consequences of this disaster… But there was no one to warn about it back then.

Similarly, the storm in Balaklava Bay on November 14, 1854, caused devastating damage to the British and French fleets, for which Balaklava was a main base during the Crimean War. Nearly all the ships were lost or severely damaged, including the famous «Prince» (sometimes called the «Black Prince» for added drama), which sank with a large amount of military cargo (legend has it that there was also gold, but you understand…).

This storm pushed bad weather too far, bringing about its downfall. In both England and France, extraordinary individuals decided that enough was enough and organized structures to counter further acts of nature. In France, it was astronomer Urbain Le Verrier, and in England, naval officer Robert FitzRoy. They knew what needed to be done.

 

Urbain Jean Joseph Le Verrier (1811–1877) was a French astronomer and mathematician who specialized in celestial mechanics. He is best known for predicting the existence and position of Neptune / wikipedia.org

 

CORRECT SOLUTION

 

Only two people in the history of Earth have discovered a new planet: Herschel discovered Uranus, and Le Verrier discovered Neptune (there was a third, Clyde Tombaugh, but Pluto was recently demoted from planet status). Perhaps equally significant was Le Verrier’s insight into how to compile data from different weather stations in real time. He organized the collection of this data through a new means of communication — telegraph, which allowed for near-instantaneous transmission.

Robert FitzRoy was the commander of the sloop HMS Beagle, which brought the young naturalist Charles Darwin to the Galápagos Islands, where he gathered the first arguments for his future theory of evolution. In 1853, the position of meteorologist-statistician was established in England, and FitzRoy, already a renowned hydrographer, took the role. However, he didn’t just collect weather data; he also began forecasting it.

The French Minister of War learned that the storm that hit Balaklava had also raged over the Mediterranean the day before, indicating it could have been anticipated! He involved Le Verrier in this work and based on Le Verrier’s findings; Emperor Napoleon III soon ordered the creation of a special service dedicated to weather forecasting. Almost simultaneously, FitzRoy organized a similar service in England.

 

Robert FitzRoy (1805–1865) was a Vice-Admiral of the Royal Navy and a scientist. He gained widespread recognition as the captain of the HMS Beagle. FitzRoy was a pioneer in meteorology and produced accurate daily weather forecasts. He developed systems for conveying weather information to sailors and fishermen for their safety and, in 1854, founded what would later become known as the Meteorological Office / wikipedia.org

 

The rest was a matter of technique. The network of weather stations grew, their methods improved, and soon, what was once an almost unthinkable weather forecast — warning sailors about hurricanes in advance — became a reality. Many shipwrecks could have been avoided if such a service had existed earlier. Now, we can even know exactly whether to take an umbrella with us. There are, of course, still mistakes, but not everything can be perfect right away!

Forecasting the weather is indeed a complex task. They say a program has been created that can accurately calculate the weather for a day, but the catch is that it takes two days to do so… Even FitzRoy, who began publishing the world’s first weather forecasts in The Times, ultimately took his own life due to the ridicule over their accuracy — this is true. Nevertheless, we still reach for an umbrella after reading the forecast on our smartphones — and usually, it’s for a good reason!

 


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