THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL: How to Find Your Lucky Ticket?

Bert Brus. Morning, 2020 / Facebook

The illusion of control is yet another cognitive bias. It occurs when we believe we have more influence over events than we actually do. Even when everything is determined by chance, we often think we can somehow affect the outcome.

In reality, things appear different than they truly are

Stanisław Jerzy Lec

WHERE IT HAPPENS

ou’re about to watch your favorite football team’s championship game on TV. And you put on your «lucky» jersey with the star player’s number on it — even though it’s long been too tight and uncomfortable. But you wear it anyway, convinced that it will somehow increase your team’s chances of winning. The players on the field won’t notice, of course… The illusion of control makes us believe that the outcome depends entirely on our own actions.

HOW IT ALL STARTED

The term «illusion of control» emerged in the mid-1970s, first introduced by Ellen Langer, a psychology professor at Harvard. She conducted a series of experiments to explore where and how this illusion arises.

In one of her experiments, Langer organized a lottery. Some participants were handed tickets, while others were allowed to choose one themselves. The latter group genuinely believed they had a higher chance of winning. When asked to sell their ticket, they named prices several times higher than its actual value. Although the lottery outcome was entirely random, these participants were convinced they had more control over their chances.

Langer concluded that people’s confidence in their chances of success is influenced by many factors — yet none of them actually affect the outcome.

GAMBLING AS A CASE STUDY

In another study, scientists observed dice players. When a player wanted to roll a high number, they threw the dice with extra force. If they needed a low number, they would toss them lightly. As we all know, the strength of the throw doesn’t affect the result. Yet the players kept trying to control the uncontrollable. As if the dice could be convinced.

When we strongly believe we have more control than we actually do, we tend to oversimplify strategies and overlook potential pitfalls. This false confidence can lead us into traps — and cause us to rely on superstition or wishful thinking, even when these have no real effect.

WHY DO WE NEED TO FEEL IN CONTROL?

As you’ve probably guessed by now, there are two types of situations: the first — work, relationships, hobbies; the second — gambling, contests, lotteries. In the latter, chance plays the decisive role. When people can influence circumstances, they take action: they analyze the situation, develop a strategy, and make decisions. But in cases where everything is governed by chance, such efforts are entirely useless. Still, people persist in taking action, convinced that their behavior might somehow affect the outcome.

On the one hand, the illusion of control helps us stay optimistic and keep working without constantly fearing that all our efforts could be ruined by a single wrong mouse click. On the other hand, when things go sideways, the same illusion can make us blame ourselves for every mistake and every unexpected turn of events.

HOW TO AVOID FALLING FOR THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL

1) Before starting a task or project, take a moment to identify what depends solely on your actions and what is simply unpredictable. This will help you plan more thoughtfully — and if things go wrong, you’ll handle the setback with greater resilience.

2) Don’t try to create patterns where chance rules. We all crave stability and certainty in life, but they aren’t always possible — and not for everyone. Accept this as a fact.

3) Don’t blame yourself for everything — or for too long. If you face failure, analyze what happened, learn from it, and move on with confidence. And if randomness played a part — well, so be it!

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HOW TO CREATE THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL

As we’ve already discovered, the illusion of control can drive people to make decisions that lead to clearly negative outcomes. Gambling is a prime example. Even when everything depends on pure chance, gamblers often believe they can improve their odds by following a «winning strategy» or performing specific rituals.

Those who continue gambling after losing significant amounts of money do so because they believe in their own unique skills or special knowledge — convinced that these will eventually lead to a big win.

This bias is frequently exploited in gambling advertising. Marketers actively try to reinforce the players’ belief that they are in control of the outcome. One study of sports betting ads in the UK found that these commercials often play on the theme of masculinity — suggesting that men who are macho and know sports well have a greater chance of winning big.

STRESS AND ITS ROLE IN CREATING THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL

Even if you’re not into card games or gambling, you can still fall under the spell of the illusion of control. Constant stress — or working in a highly competitive environment — tends to reinforce this illusion. It kicks in when we become so focused on achieving a goal that we stop considering all the possible outcomes of our actions.

A study in the field of financial trading found that traders who operated under intense pressure and focused solely on maximizing profits in the shortest possible time — driven by an illusion of control — actually performed worse.

THE ELEVATOR BUTTON

The illusion of control often reveals itself when we’re in a different cultural environment. Here’s an example: if you’ve ever suspected that the «close door» button in an elevator doesn’t actually close the door — you were probably right (especially if you’re in the U.S.).

Back in 1990, the Americans with Disabilities Act mandated that elevator doors remain open long enough for people in wheelchairs or with crutches to enter safely.

For similar reasons, in many parts of New York City, the pedestrian crossing buttons have been deactivated — traffic lights, like elevators, are now controlled by central computers.

So why keep the buttons if they don’t do anything? Because they create the illusion of control. Being able to press a button to (supposedly) influence an outcome makes us feel more in charge — and that feeling brings a little comfort while we wait.

THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL AND YOUR HEALTH

Believing that we are in control of everything happening to us — even when we’re not — plays an important role in maintaining our mental well-being. The opposite of this illusion is a sense of helplessness. When people find themselves in situations they can’t influence, they begin to feel like they’ve lost control over their lives. Such individuals are more likely to give up when faced with real obstacles — and that can quickly lead to depression.

Still, let’s be honest: we tend to focus more on positive information than negative, and we’re more likely to remember moments of happiness than sadness. When it comes to decision-making, we naturally give more weight to optimistic forecasts than to pessimistic ones. This optimism feeds the illusion of control — we believe that things will turn out for the best, even when there’s little reason to think so.

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