MICHAEL MARIEN: The conflict between democracy and autocracy is growing bigger and bigger!
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Global warming, nuclear weapons, poverty, growing inequality, and military conflicts — intellectuals from different countries around the world are sounding the alarm, warning that humanity is in danger. But does humanity, divided by wars and local interests, truly hear them?
In 2015, the UN outlined 17 Sustainable Development Goals that we must achieve by 2030. Will we be able to meet these goals? Michael Marien is one of those searching for answers to these pressing questions.
Marien is an interdisciplinary sociologist, futurist, member of the World Academy of Art and Science, and former editor of Future Survey. He is currently a senior director at the UN’s Office for Security and Sustainable Development.
In a special interview with Huxley, Michael Marien discusses the conflict between democracy and authoritarianism, the war in Ukraine, and other challenges that humanity must confront.
UKRAINE AND GLOBAL SECURITY
It is impossible to precisely measure how much Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has worsened the global political climate, but it is clear that the war poses a significant threat to global security.
If Russia succeeds in annexing part of Ukraine, it will signal to the Chinese government that it can take Taiwan by military force. The war has significantly increased global multipolarity, deepening divisions between the U.S. and Russia, the U.S. and China, and between the East and the West.
This has become a major obstacle to global cooperation on humanity’s existential challenges — such as climate change. You may know that back in 2015, the UN adopted 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to be achieved by 2030. War poses a serious threat to realizing these goals.
PUTIN CHOSE WAR OVER DEVELOPMENT
Vladimir Putin had the opportunity to choose a broader path of development for his country. Russia’s resources are vast, extending beyond just oil and gas. He could have used them to contribute to global security in the 21st century. However, he and his advisors initially rejected cooperation on sustainable development.
Instead, they resorted to the archaic method of military territorial conquest. This has inflicted colossal damage — not only on Ukraine but also on Russia itself and a significant part of the world.
The financial consequences of Putin’s folly are among the most severe. The U.S. is investing billions in the war in Ukraine. Germany and other NATO countries are now increasing their military budgets. Enormous sums are being spent on war — funds that could have been used to achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.
Unfortunately, this is a necessary measure.
Russia and China are ramping up their military capabilities, and we are forced to take the necessary steps to counter their threats. This requires massive expenditures, but at this moment, there is no alternative. I fully understand those who seek to curb this arms race, particularly nuclear expansion. However, idealists who envision peace without war are setting goals that, for now, remain utopian. These aspirations are premature and have yet to gain broad political support.
RIGHT-WING POPULISM: DEMOCRACY IN DANGER
However, the arms race is not the only threat. Without a doubt, the populism of political leaders like Trump and Le Pen poses a significant risk to democracy. The nonprofit organization Freedom House, headquartered in Washington, publishes annual reports that reflect the state of freedom and democracy in each country worldwide.
The 2022 report, Freedom in the World: The Global Expansion of Authoritarian Rule, provides a comprehensive overview of how global liberalization and democracy have been steadily declining over the past 16 years.
This trend is particularly evident in the United States, which has traditionally served as a beacon of freedom for modern humanity. Today, only 20% of the world’s population lives in free countries, while 80% reside in partially free or authoritarian states.
I consider this study to be the best existing analysis of the growing conflict between democracy and autocracy.
ARE WE ONE STEP AWAY FROM DYSTOPIA?
Aldous Huxley, the author of one of the most influential dystopian novels of the past century, warned that overpopulation inevitably leads to dictatorial regimes. In one of his prophetic writings, he stated:
Perhaps the forces that now threaten freedom are too powerful to be resisted for long. Yet our duty remains to do everything in our power to oppose them
I completely agree with him on this. Moreover, the aforementioned organization, Freedom House, offers numerous ideas for resisting these threats.
In the United States, a significant portion of the population still believes that the 2020 presidential election was «stolen» and that Trump was unlawfully denied a second term — claims made without any evidence.
The 2022 congressional elections will be crucial. If critics who share these views secure government positions in certain states, it could have serious consequences for American democracy.
ELITE CONSPIRACY AND MASS PHOBIAS
Trump has publicly claimed that global warming is a hoax. His supporters still refuse to acknowledge the seriousness of this issue. Sociological studies show that most Trump supporters have lower levels of education and generally hold negative views toward science. Additionally, their community is characterized by resentment and distrust of the political elite.
As a result, they are willing to support Trump simply because he opposes the established social order. His stance on withdrawing the U.S. from NATO and canceling the nuclear agreement with Iran resonates with them.
There are also other reasons for Trump’s support, including the frenzy surrounding energy prices — rising costs of oil, gas, and coal. This support is further fueled by unfounded fears that immigrants are taking jobs from American citizens. All these anxieties contribute to Trump’s popularity.
IS THE GLOBAL AGENDA LOSING RELEVANCE?
In the U.S., frequent polls are conducted to determine the most pressing issues for people. Currently, high inflation and gas prices top the list, whereas not long ago, the biggest concern was the threat to democracy. Climate change typically ranks in the lower half of the top ten issues.
It is clear that public perception of various problems varies from country to country and changes over time. A 2019 survey conducted for the World Economic Forum assessed public awareness of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
It turned out that in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, and Australia, 50% of the population has no knowledge of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. About 20% have heard of them but lack sufficient understanding to provide any meaningful commentary on the subject
The lack of public awareness about global issues is particularly evident in places where nationalism is strong and domestic concerns take precedence over global challenges.
PUBLIC RESPONSE TO CHANGE
Many people likely perceive the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as overly idealistic. This could explain why publications such as The New York Times and The Economist rarely mentioned the SDGs in the past.
However, by 2022, as record-breaking droughts, floods, extreme heat, and wildfires affected large parts of the world, coverage of climate change increased. Unfortunately, these publications do not have a vast readership.
Neglecting these facts may be a psychological reaction to fear. But it is not just about people being afraid of climate change consequences that could disrupt their lives.
In reality, it is a combination of various factors — global resource shortages, which have been exacerbated by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine; the perception that some issues are not urgent; hopes that new technologies will provide easy solutions to pressing problems. Add to this self-interest, misinformation, and a sense of helplessness…
FIXING THE WORLD TOGETHER
Today, the world’s wealthiest nations have the capacity to assist countries in urgent need of support. However, it is important to recognize that such aid requires significant resources, while each nation prioritizes its own pressing domestic concerns
For example, during the pandemic, vaccines were first distributed among developed countries, while third-world nations received them much later and in significantly smaller quantities. Systemic investments are needed for transformative changes, such as transitioning to electric vehicles and reducing environmental pollution.
Yes, such projects are costly. But here’s a counterargument: if we do not start seriously addressing global problems as soon as possible, the consequences could become irreversible.
It’s like a leaking roof in your house — if you don’t fix it, the leak won’t disappear on its own. Instead, it will only get worse over time, making repairs even more expensive and challenging.
Interview by Leonid Shokh
